Grain > Commentary > 8-12-2024

8/12/2024

Aug 12, 2024

The USDA's August WASDE report gave the market more than just a snack to chew on. We are finally seeing some official numbers get hashed up after a planting season that had many wondering about acres. The report was brutal for soybeans which got hit with a double whammy in the acres and yield departments. Most notable changes: one million acres were switched from corn to soybeans and the Illinois corn crop was pegged at 225 bu/ac (203 bu/ac in 2023). Today's report balloons the forecasted U.S. soybean 2024/25 carryout by over 28% to 560 million bushels.

A fair amount of number shuffling on the U.S. corn balance sheet this month. Old crop numbers: netted a 10 million bushel decrease to the carryout. New crop side: 700k acres cut and a 75 million bushel increase to exports lower the forecasted ending stocks by 24 million bushels even after the USDA shocked with a big 183.1 avg yield for the U.S.

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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...